The District Sentinel Discontent Index rose by 0.1 point in September, but indicated that the economy appears to be improving over the long run.
Labor Discontent, narrowed by an improving job market, was down on a monthly basis by almost half a point. Those gains were more than washed out by increasing Consumer Discontent—pushed 0.62 points up by a diminished Consumer Confidence Index.
A slight decline in the seasonally-adjusted rate of seriously delinquent FHA-backed mortgages, meanwhile, saw Housing Discontent fall slightly, by 0.02 points. The component’s decline would have been larger if not for a rise in the ratio of housing costs to average weekly earnings for non supervisory employees.
Labor Discontent, too, would have been lower in the absence of a Bureau of Labor Statistics-reported “major work stoppage.” BLS said that1,300 Zodiac Airspace Workers in Gainesville, Texas, led by United Brotherhood of Teamsters local 767, went on strike in September. It was the only industrial action involving more than 1,000 workers recorded by the Labor Department office.
On a year-over-year basis, the Discontent Index was down in September by more than 9.5 points, with all three components lower. Labor Discontent decreased annually by the largest amount. Its 5.86 point 12-month decline was driven by lower employment and underemployment, higher labor force participation, and a drop in strike activity.
Between its January 2004 baseline (DI=99.9, all three sub-indexes=33.3) and its public launch in late 2014, the Discontent Index peaked at 144.35 in Aug. 2011 – one month before the Occupy Wall Street movement started. Its record low was 87.65 in Dec. 2006 – when unemployment reached a post-tech bubble recession low of 4.4%.
For more information about the District Sentinel Discontent Index, click here.
