The District Sentinel Discontent Index fell slightly in February, dropping to 97.71 from 98.04 in January.
The movement was driven by marginal declines in Consumer Discontent and Housing Discontent. The former was down on lower serious delinquency rates for FHA-backed mortgages, while the latter decreased due to lower transportation costs—a consequence of falling energy prices.
Labor Discontent, meanwhile, was only down 0.03 points. Although underemployment and labor force participation were both on the rise in February, increased strike activity kept the Discontent Index subcomponent high. Major work stoppages were up after 4,200 janitors in Minneapolis walked off the job with the SEIU.
Eight years ago, during the last election cycle without an incumbent, the Discontent Index was roughly the same. In February 2008, it was 99.09.
Then, however, it was on the rise—up from 94.3 in November 2007. By contrast, the latest readings of the Discontent Index show a downward trend. The gauge has fallen nearly every month since May 2015, when it was at 106.66.
Between its January 2004 baseline (DI=99.9, all three sub-indexes=33.3) and its public launch in late 2014, the Discontent Index peaked at 144.35 in Aug. 2011 – one month before the Occupy Wall Street movement started. Its record low was 87.65 in Dec. 2006 – when unemployment reached a post-tech bubble trough of 4.4 percent.
Find out more about the Discontent Index and its components and inputs here.
